Forecasts were too optimistic
An EFMI Business School analysis shows that most Dutch supermarket chains’ online sales will not have become large enough by 2020 or 2025 to become profitable as a sales channel on its own. That is why this particular analysis is not as optimistic as previous forecasts.
Those stated that online sales would represent 10 to 15 % of total turnover in 10 years’ time, but EFMI says there is no foundation to claim those numbers. “You can see a rather linear growth in England and other markets, but that growth is not exponential. Many forecasts are based on a gut feeling or based on online sales in the non-food market. That may lead to over-excitement”, EFMI research director Marcel van Aalst said.
Several factors
The United Kingdom is the leader of the European pack when it comes to online sales and groceries, with a 5 % market share of total turnover. If the Netherlands manage a similar growth to the United Kingdom, then its online sales will have reached a 2.8 % market share in 2020 and 5 % in 2025.
EFMI does assume that the Dutch online sales growth can be a bit quicker if the service gets integrated into society faster or when there is a wider range of possible delivery services. New platforms and new technologies can also help boost the online market.
Dependent on different factors, EFMI forecasts that online groceries’ market share will be between 4 and 7.5 % in 10 years’ time. Only Albert Heijn and Jumbo will face the possibility of a profitable business model, in the most optimistic forecast. Currently, Albert Heijn dominates the online market, with a market share of about 80 %.
